Literaturdatenbank
Literaturdatenbank |
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Segurado, P. (2000). Modelação da distribuição e da abundância local do cágado-mediterrãnico (mauremys leprosa) e do cágado-de-carapaça-estriada (emys orbicularis) em portugal [predictive models of the distribution and local abundance of the mediterranean-terrapin (m. Unpublished thesis , Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, Lisboa.
Added by: Sarina Wunderlich (27 Nov 2011 14:28:19 UTC) |
| Resource type: Thesis/Dissertation BibTeX citation key: Segurado2000 View all bibliographic details  |
Categories: General Keywords: Emydidae, Emys, Emys orbicularis, Geoemydidae, Habitat = habitat, Mauremys, Mauremys leprosa, Schildkröten = turtles + tortoises, Südwesteuropa = South-Western Europa Creators: Segurado Publisher: Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (Lisboa) |
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| Abstract |
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Information on the presence/absence of Mauremys leprosa and Emys orbicularis in UTM 10 x 10 km grid cells was used to build predictive models of their distribution in Portugal. Two types of statistical models were used: tree-based models and multivariate logistic regression models. The predictive variables were obtained from the Environment Atlas of Portugal, which includes climatic, geomorphological, ecological and land cover variables. A great number of statistically valid models were adjusted in order to maximise the span of choices in model selection. The predictive maps were obtained using a Geographic Information System. Both methods and the available environmental variables provided a reasonable predictive power of the models. About 80% (M. leprosa) and 84% (E. orbicularis) of the cells were correctly classified. The variables with stronger predictive power were mainly climatic: solar radiation, humidity, drainage, evapotranspiration, rainfall and ecological region. The results suggests strong evidence on the decline of E. orbicularis populations in Portugal. The predictive maps will be very useful for the future selection of priority areas for conservation.
Added by: Sarina Wunderlich |