Literaturdatenbank
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Arntzen, J. W. (2006). From descriptive to predictive distribution models: A working example with iberian amphibians and reptiles. Frontiers in Zoology, 3(8), 11 pp.
Added by: Admin (06 Jan 2014 18:23:59 UTC) |
| Resource type: Journal Article BibTeX citation key: anon2006c View all bibliographic details  |
Categories: General Keywords: Amphibien - amphibians, Echsen - saurians, Geoemydidae, Habitat - habitat, invasive Arten - invasive species, Mauremys leprosa, Schildkröten - turtles + tortoises, Schlangen - snakes, Südwesteuropa - South-Western Europa Creators: Arntzen Collection: Frontiers in Zoology |
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Abstract Background: Aim of the study was to identify the conditions under which spatial-environmental models can be used for the improved understanding of species distributions, under the explicit criterion of model predictive performance. I constructed distribution models for 17 amphibian and 21 reptile species in Portugal from atlas data and 13 selected ecological variables with stepwise logistic regression and a geographic information system. Models constructed for Portugal were extrapolated over Spain and tested against range maps and atlas data. Results: Descriptive model precision ranged from 'fair' to 'very good' for 12 species showing a range border inside Portugal ('edge species', kappa (k) 0.35–0.89, average 0.57) and was at best 'moderate' for 26 species with a countrywide Portuguese distribution ('non-edge species', k = 0.03– 0.54, average 0.29). The accuracy of the prediction for Spain was significantly related to the precision of the descriptive model for the group of edge species and not for the countrywide species. In the latter group data were consistently better captured with the single variable searcheffort than by the panel of environmental data. Conclusion: Atlas data in presence-absence format are often inadequate to model the distribution of species if the considered area does not include part of the range border. Conversely, distribution models for edge-species, especially those displaying high precision, may help in the correct identification of parameters underlying the species range and assist with the informed choice of conservation measures. Mauremys leprosa
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